Can Labour Win Next Time?

There are never any final battles in politics. No one should begrudge John Key his moment of triumph on Saturday, but – as he will be well aware – the campaign for the next general election has already started. A 48% share of the votes cast was, on the face of it, an outstanding achievement. […]

Will He, Won’t He?

While much of the country is focused on the Rugby World Cup, there is at least one group of people with a quite different contest at the top of their minds. With less than six weeks till the general election, the campaign managers for the major parties will be scanning the horizon for opportunities to […]

The General Election Judgment

A three-year electoral cycle may have its detractors – and, many would say, with good reason – but it is usually popular with first-term governments. The record shows that three years is not really long enough for voters to reach a definitive view that a recently elected government has failed, and the benefit of the […]

The Election the Parties Lost But the Country Won

The general election of 2010 was the most complex, fascinating and important British election of modern times. In one sense, it was the election that no one won. In another – and perhaps more significantly – it may have been the first election of a new twenty-first century era in which Britain has at last […]

The Real Story of the 2010 Election

Let us make some entirely plausible assumptions about the outcome of the general election. Let us assume that the Conservatives attract the largest share of votes, but fall short of a majority either of votes or of seats. Let us assume that Labour comes second or third in terms of the number of votes but […]